Consumer & Credit Dashboard
Sentiment, spending, saving, and credit balances
Quickly assess household demand and leverage. This dashboard grades eleven indicators across sentiment, retail sales, personal consumption, saving rates, and revolving/nonrevolving credit. Percentile ranks over 20 years highlight when consumers are stretched or healthy.
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Consumer & Credit Snapshot
Consumer & Credit Trends
Consumer Sentiment (UMich)
University of Michigan headline index
Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)
Confidence index (1985=100)
Retail Sales (Nominal)
Advance retail & food services sales
Retail Sales (Real)
Inflation-adjusted retail sales
Retail Sales ex Autos
Retail excluding motor vehicles & parts
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Nominal PCE (SAAR)
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Inflation-adjusted PCE (SAAR)
Personal Saving Rate
Percent of disposable income
Total Consumer Credit
Outstanding consumer credit
Revolving Credit
Credit card balances
Nonrevolving Credit
Installment/auto/student credit
How to interpret consumer demand and household leverage
Consumer activity powers most of the economy. Use these indicators to separate “real” spending strength from inflation effects and to spot when households are leaning on credit instead of income and savings.
General overview: what this dashboard is measuring
This page combines sentiment (how consumers feel), spending (retail sales and PCE), buffers (savings rate), and leverage (consumer credit).
A useful mental model is: income → spending, and when income pressure rises, consumers often bridge the gap with lower savings and more revolving credit.
Pair this with Labor & Employment (income engine) and Money & Markets (financing conditions) for cleaner regime calls.
Detailed breakdown: each indicator and how to use it
Read direction and momentum first, then use percentiles to understand how unusual the current level is versus the last ~20 years.
Quick framework: “volume vs price” for spending
Real spending = Nominal spending − Inflation effects
Nominal series can look strong during inflation. Real series (inflation-adjusted) are closer to true volume and can better explain whether demand is actually expanding or just becoming more expensive.
Sentiment
Leads shifts
Real sales
Confirms volume
Savings
Shows buffer
UMich Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT)
Forward-looking confidence signal
- Use it for: early read on willingness to spend and perceived financial conditions.
- Signal: sharp sentiment drops often precede demand slowing, even before hard data turns.
- Cross-check: confirm with real retail sales and real PCE for follow-through.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (CONCCONF)
Jobs and income expectations
- Why it matters: confidence is closely tied to labor conditions and expectations.
- Watch for: deterioration in “jobs plentiful vs hard to get” style components (if present in notes).
- Best use: combine with unemployment claims and payroll trends on Labor page.
Retail Sales (RSAFS) vs Real Retail Sales (RRSFS)
Nominal spending vs inflation-adjusted volume
- Key idea: nominal can look fine while real is weakening (inflation masking volume softness).
- Signal: broad weakening in real retail sales usually aligns with slowing earnings for consumer-facing sectors.
- Tip: compare “ex auto” (RSXFS) to see if weakness is broad or concentrated in big-ticket items.
Retail Sales ex Auto (RSXFS)
Core retail demand signal
- Use it for: a cleaner read on everyday demand excluding large, volatile auto purchases.
- Signal: persistent weakness here can indicate a broader consumer slowdown.
- Cross-check: validate with real PCE (PCEC96) for total consumption trends.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) & Real PCE (PCEC96)
Total consumer spending (nominal vs real)
- Use it for: broad demand, beyond retail categories (includes services).
- Signal: real PCE weakening is a major macro warning because services dominate the economy.
- Tip: pair with inflation trends to avoid confusing price effects with volume changes.
Personal Savings Rate (PSAVERT)
Household buffer and resilience
- Why it matters: savings is the cushion that absorbs shocks without requiring new debt.
- Signal: falling savings alongside steady spending often implies consumers are “drawing down.”
- Risk: very low savings can amplify downturns if the labor market softens.
Total / Revolving / Nonrevolving Credit (TOTALSL, REVOLSL, NONREVSL)
Leverage mix (cards vs installment)
- Revolving (REVOLSL): credit cards; rising reliance here often signals day-to-day strain.
- Nonrevolving (NONREVSL): installment debt (autos/student); more structural and slower-moving.
- Signal: rapid revolving growth + falling savings can be a late-cycle warning.
Playbook: combining the signals
Simple regime reads
- Healthy demand: sentiment stable, real spending rising, savings stable → supportive for growth.
- Inflation masking: nominal spending up, real spending flat/down → demand weaker than headlines.
- Stretching: spending steady, savings falling, revolving credit accelerating → rising fragility.
- Tightening bite: revolving growth slows and confidence falls after rate spikes → watch for slowdown.
FAQ
Common questions about interpreting consumer demand and credit.
Why do I need both retail sales and PCE? ▼
Retail sales focus on goods and a narrower slice of activity. PCE is broader and includes services, which are a large share of consumer spending. Using both reduces blind spots.
What’s the difference between nominal and real spending? ▼
Nominal spending includes price changes. Real spending adjusts for inflation to better represent true volume. During high inflation, nominal can rise even when real demand is flat.
Is low consumer sentiment always bearish? ▼
Not automatically. Sentiment can stay low for long periods. What often matters more is whether sentiment is improving or deteriorating and whether hard data (real spending) confirms the move.
Why is the savings rate such a big deal? ▼
Savings is a buffer. Falling savings while spending holds up can indicate consumers are using reserves. If income growth slows, low savings can force spending cuts.
How should I interpret rising revolving credit? ▼
Rising revolving credit can reflect strong demand, but it can also signal households leaning on credit cards for basics. It’s more concerning when paired with falling savings and weakening sentiment.
What does “percentile grade” mean here? ▼
It compares today’s level to roughly 20 years of history. Extreme percentiles can signal unusual conditions (very hot or very cold), but trend direction is still crucial for timing.
Important considerations
Avoid these common misreads when evaluating the consumer.
- Nominal vs real: always confirm spending strength with inflation-adjusted series.
- Levels vs change: percentiles help spot extremes, but turning points often matter more for markets.
- Composition matters: revolving credit rising is typically more fragile than installment credit rising.
- Lag risk: credit stress tends to show up after labor softens—use labor leading indicators too.
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