Growth & Output Dashboard
Track Key Economic Indicators from FRED
Monitor the health of the US economy with data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). This dashboard tracks five critical indicators of economic growth and output: Real GDP, GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and Consumer Sentiment. Each indicator is graded and analyzed against 20 years of historical data to provide context on current economic conditions.
Open Source & Transparent
All data is open source and verifiable on GitHub. We believe in transparency and welcome contributions to improve our tools.
Key Economic Indicators
Historical Trends
Real Gross Domestic Product
Total economic output adjusted for inflation
GDP Growth Rate (QoQ %)
Quarter-over-quarter percentage change
Industrial Production Index
Manufacturing, mining, and utilities output
Capacity Utilization (Total Industry)
Percentage of production capacity in use
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Consumer confidence and economic expectations
How to read the five growth indicators
Use these benchmarks to spot expansions, late-cycle heat, and recession risks. Each card explains what the indicator measures, what “healthy” looks like, and how to combine it with the others.
General overview: what this dashboard is measuring
Growth and output indicators measure how much the economy is producing and how fast it’s changing. The mix helps you separate a healthy expansion from overheating or a slowdown.
For markets, the key is the direction of momentum. A decelerating economy can pressure earnings expectations, while an overheating economy can keep policy tight and valuations constrained.
Use this page with Inflation & Prices (price pressures) and Money & Markets (rates/financial conditions) for a full regime read.
Detailed breakdown: indicator-by-indicator interpretation
Each series matters on its own, but the cleanest signals come from agreement across GDP, production/capacity, and consumer expectations.
Cycle logic (simple mental model)
Hot growth + high utilization → inflation risk → tighter policy
When output is rising quickly and capacity is tight, inflation pressures tend to build. When output is slowing and utilization is falling, recession risk rises and policy tends to ease (eventually).
GDP
Total output
IP
Cyclical pulse
Sentiment
Demand lead
Real GDP level
Total inflation-adjusted output
- Healthy: trend rising with broad sector participation; recessions usually show multiple quarters of decline.
- Early warning: flat or negative prints, especially with soft payrolls and falling sentiment.
- Investor read: falling Real GDP with still-strong inflation increases stagflation risk.
GDP Growth Rate (QoQ annualized)
Momentum of output
- Expansion: roughly +2% to +4% signals solid, sustainable growth.
- Late-cycle heat: persistently above +4% can precede overheating and tighter Fed policy.
- Recession risk: sustained near-zero/negative prints alongside weakening jobs and sentiment.
Industrial Production Index
Factory, mining, utilities output
- Key level: index is set to 100 in 2017; above 100 implies expansion since then.
- Trend watch: rising with GDP confirms expansion; falling can flag cyclical weakness.
- Warning: sharp downturns often precede earnings downgrades for cyclicals and transports.
Capacity Utilization
How “full” industry is running
- Balanced: ~77–80% is healthy—growth without major inflation pressure.
- Hot: above ~80% can signal bottlenecks and inflation risk; often late-cycle.
- Slack: below ~75% suggests weak demand; very low readings are typical recession territory.
Consumer Sentiment Index
Leading demand signal
- Why it matters: consumers drive most GDP; sentiment often leads spending changes.
- Signal: persistent drops can precede weaker retail sales and services demand.
- Cross-check: compare to the Consumer & Credit dashboard for hard spending and savings confirmation.
FAQ
Quick answers to the most common growth questions.
What is Real GDP and why does it matter? ▼
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total economic output of the United States adjusted for inflation. It represents the value of all goods and services produced in the economy. Real GDP is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and growth. Rising Real GDP indicates economic expansion, while declining Real GDP signals contraction or recession. Investors watch GDP trends to gauge overall economic health and potential corporate earnings growth.
How do I interpret the GDP Growth Rate? ▼
The GDP Growth Rate shows the quarter-over-quarter percentage change in Real GDP. Positive growth indicates economic expansion, while negative growth suggests contraction. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth technically defines a recession. Strong growth above 3-4% annually is considered robust, while growth below 2% is considered sluggish. Sustained high growth can lead to inflation concerns, while very low or negative growth raises recession risks.
What does the Industrial Production Index tell me? ▼
The Industrial Production Index measures output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It is a leading economic indicator because changes in industrial production often precede changes in overall GDP. Rising industrial production indicates growing demand for goods and expanding economic activity. Declining production suggests weakening demand and potential economic slowdown. The index is set to 100 in 2017, so values above 100 indicate expansion since then.
How should I interpret Capacity Utilization? ▼
Capacity Utilization measures the percentage of total production capacity that is currently in use across all industries. High utilization (above 80%) suggests the economy is running hot with strong demand, but may indicate future inflation pressure as resources become scarce. Low utilization (below 75%) suggests slack capacity and weak demand. Very low readings can signal recession. Moderate utilization around 77-80% is generally considered healthy, indicating balanced growth without overheating.
What does Consumer Sentiment measure? ▼
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surveys consumers about their confidence in the economy and their personal financial outlook. It is a leading indicator because consumer spending drives about 70% of US GDP. High sentiment (above 90) indicates confident consumers likely to spend more, supporting economic growth. Low sentiment (below 70) warns of cautious consumers cutting spending, potentially signaling economic slowdown. Sentiment often predicts future consumption and retail sales trends.
Important considerations
A few nuances help prevent false alarms.
- Lag vs lead: GDP is comprehensive but backward-looking; sentiment and production can turn earlier.
- Revisions happen: GDP is revised—watch the trend and corroborate with other indicators.
- Policy feedback loop: strong growth can keep rates higher for longer, pressuring valuations even without recession.
- Check breadth: broad-based strength matters more than one “hot” print.
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