Housing & Affordability Dashboard
Track supply, prices, mortgage costs, and affordability
Stay ahead of housing cycle turns with daily FRED data. This dashboard grades ten key indicators across starts, permits, new and existing sales, home prices, mortgage rates, and debt service ratios using 20 years of history. Use it to gauge supply/demand balance, affordability pressure, and rate-driven headwinds.
Open Source & Transparent
All data is open source and verifiable on GitHub. We believe in transparency and welcome contributions to improve our tools.
Housing & Affordability Snapshot
Housing & Affordability Trends
Housing Starts
New privately-owned housing units started
Building Permits
Authorized housing units — leading indicator
New Home Sales
New single-family houses sold
Existing Home Sales
Resale market volume
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
U.S. national home prices
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
Average mortgage rate (weekly)
15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
Average 15Y mortgage rate (weekly)
Household Debt Service Ratio
Debt payments as % of disposable income
Mortgage Debt Service Ratio
Mortgage payments as % of disposable income
10-Year Breakeven Inflation
Market-based inflation expectations
How to read housing and affordability signals
Housing is one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy. Use this section to translate the dashboard’s percentiles into a practical market read: supply, demand, price pressure, and household stress.
General overview: what this dashboard is telling you
This dashboard combines supply (starts/permits), demand (new/existing sales), pricing (Case‑Shiller), and financing (mortgage rates + debt service ratios) to show where the housing cycle is tightening or loosening.
The percentile grades are the key: they show how unusual today’s value is versus the last ~20 years. A single indicator can be noisy—investors generally want confirmation across supply, demand, and financing before making strong cycle calls.
If you’re using this for markets: housing often leads cyclicals, homebuilders, regional banks/credit, and consumer durables. For macro, housing can lead employment and inflation dynamics by several quarters.
Detailed breakdown: each datapoint and how to use it
Each indicator below includes what it measures, what to watch, and common interpretation traps. Use the “Playbook” cards at the end to combine signals into cleaner cycle reads.
Affordability mechanics (the “why” behind the moves)
Monthly Payment ≈ P&I on the mortgage rate + taxes/insurance
When mortgage rates rise, the same home price implies a higher monthly payment. That hits demand first (sales), then construction (permits/starts), and later prices. Debt service ratios (TDSP/MDSP) help confirm whether households can absorb the shock.
Rates
Primary transmission channel
Sales
Fastest demand signal
DSR
Household stress confirmation
Tip: compare this page with Money & Markets to see whether rate pressure is easing or accelerating.
Housing Starts (HOUST)
New residential construction activity (supply pipeline)
- What it is: Breaking ground on new units; a classic leading indicator for construction employment and materials demand.
- Investor read: Starts rolling over while rates are rising often precedes weakness in homebuilders and housing-related cyclicals.
- Watch for: A multi-month downtrend (not one print) plus weak permits for confirmation.
Building Permits (PERMIT)
Intent to build (usually leads starts)
- What it is: Authorizations to build; typically the earliest signal of supply appetite.
- Early warning: Permits falling while sales are weakening suggests builders expect demand to soften further.
- Trap: Weather and regional disruptions can distort short-term prints—use trend + percentiles.
New Home Sales (HSN1F)
Rate-sensitive demand at the margin
- Why it matters: New homes often respond faster to rates because builders can offer incentives (rate buy-downs, upgrades).
- Bullish combo: New sales stabilizing while permits recover can mark an early turn up in the cycle.
- Trap: Incentives can mask affordability pressure—cross-check with 30Y mortgage rates and DSR.
Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S)
Broader demand + the “lock-in” effect
- Why it matters: Existing sales can freeze when homeowners are locked into low mortgage rates and don’t want to move.
- Investor read: Low existing sales with high prices can look “tight” but may reflect rate lock-in rather than true strength.
- Watch for: Re-acceleration in existing sales often requires rates to fall or incomes to rise meaningfully.
Case‑Shiller Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA)
Home price trend (lagging, but market-relevant)
- How to use it: Prices usually lag sales and starts. Treat it as confirmation, not a leading signal.
- Warning: If prices stay elevated while affordability (DSR) worsens, the adjustment often shifts to volume (sales) before prices break.
- Market impact: Price softness can bleed into shelter inflation and consumer sentiment with a lag.
30‑Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US)
Primary affordability driver for most borrowers
- What to watch: Direction and speed. Fast rate spikes tend to hit sales immediately.
- Macro link: Higher mortgage rates tighten financial conditions and can slow GDP via housing and consumption spillovers.
- Cross-check: Compare to Money & Markets for yield/term-premium context.
15‑Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE15US)
Refinance/accelerated payoff signal
- Why it matters: Often reflects borrowing conditions for higher-credit households; can influence refi and housing turnover.
- Investor angle: Falling 15Y rates can support housing-related credit performance and spending via refinancing at the margin.
- Trap: Lower rates don’t automatically mean higher activity if supply is constrained (lock-in persists).
Total Debt Service Ratio (TDSP)
Household debt payments as % of income (broad stress gauge)
- What it captures: The aggregate payment burden across household debt.
- Warning: Rising TDSP alongside weakening sales can signal affordability stress that spills into consumer credit.
- Pair it with: Consumer & Credit to check delinquencies and savings behavior.
Mortgage Debt Service Ratio (MDSP)
Mortgage payments as % of income (housing-specific stress)
- Interpretation: Rising MDSP suggests mortgages are consuming more income—either rates are higher, prices are higher, or both.
- Market read: High MDSP tends to pressure entry-level demand and may reduce mobility/turnover.
- Trap: MDSP can move slowly—use it as confirmation rather than a timing tool.
10‑Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE)
Inflation expectations that influence long rates
- Why it matters for housing: Higher inflation expectations can keep long-term yields elevated, which often translates to higher mortgage rates.
- Cross-check: Use Inflation & Prices to confirm whether inflation pressure is easing.
- Investor read: Falling breakevens + falling mortgage rates often supports a bottoming process in sales before construction turns.
Playbook: combine signals (cleaner cycle reads)
Use confirmation to avoid false turns
- Tight housing (price support): Permits/starts low, sales stabilizing, mortgage rates flat-to-down. Prices can stay firm even with weak volume.
- Demand break: Mortgage rates rising fast, sales falling, permits rolling over. Prices usually soften later.
- Early recovery: Mortgage rates falling, new sales stabilizing first, then permits/starts recover.
- Stress signal: Rising TDSP/MDSP with falling sales increases downside risk for housing-linked credit and discretionary spending.
FAQ
These questions focus on interpreting the data and the most common investor pitfalls when reading housing-cycle indicators.
What does a “high percentile” mean on this dashboard? ▼
A high percentile means today’s value is high relative to the last ~20 years of history for that indicator. It doesn’t automatically mean “good” or “bad”—for example, high mortgage rates are usually bearish for affordability, while high sales are typically bullish for demand.
Which indicators usually lead the housing cycle? ▼
Mortgage rates often move first. Sales (new/existing) typically react next, then permits/starts, and prices tend to confirm later. Investors often watch sales + permits for the cleanest early-cycle turn signals.
Why can home prices stay high while sales are falling? ▼
When supply is constrained (or existing owners are locked into low-rate mortgages), the market can clear via volume instead of price. That means transactions fall first, while prices adjust later or more slowly.
How should I interpret TDSP and MDSP? ▼
They are household debt burden gauges: TDSP is total debt payments as a share of income; MDSP is mortgage payments as a share of income. Rising ratios imply affordability pressure and can signal downstream stress for consumer spending and credit.
What’s the difference between “affordability” and “availability”? ▼
Affordability is whether households can pay for housing at current prices/rates (confirmed by sales + debt service). Availability is whether enough homes are listed or being built (permits/starts). A market can be unaffordable and still have low supply.
Do I need to use this page with other dashboards? ▼
It’s recommended. Housing is tightly linked to rates and inflation. Pair with Money & Markets for yield context, Inflation & Prices for inflation pressure, and Consumer & Credit for household balance-sheet confirmation.
Important considerations when using this dashboard
These are common pitfalls and “gotchas” that can lead to incorrect cycle calls if you don’t account for them.
- Lock-in effect: Existing home sales can stay depressed even if demand is “fine” because homeowners don’t want to give up low-rate mortgages.
- Lag structure: Sales typically lead construction, and construction often leads prices. Don’t expect Case‑Shiller to turn first.
- One print is noise: Housing data is volatile and revised. Use trends (multi-month) and confirmation across indicators.
- Affordability vs availability: Low inventory can keep prices elevated even while affordability worsens—volume may absorb the adjustment.
- Macro spillovers: Housing weakness can bleed into labor markets and consumption with a lag—cross-check Labor and Consumer dashboards.
Related Economy Tools
Mortgage affordability depends on rates, inflation, and household balance sheets.