Inflation & Prices Dashboard
Track Key Inflation Indicators from FRED
Monitor inflation trends across multiple measures with data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). This dashboard tracks seven critical inflation indicators: CPI (All Items), Core CPI, PCE Price Index, Core PCE, Producer Price Index, 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Energy CPI. Each indicator is graded and analyzed against 20 years of historical data to provide context on current price pressures. Use this dashboard to understand inflation dynamics, assess Federal Reserve policy implications, and make informed investment decisions.
Open Source & Transparent
All data is open source and verifiable on GitHub. We believe in transparency and welcome contributions to improve our tools.
Key Inflation Indicators
Historical Trends
Consumer Price Index (All Items)
Headline inflation measure tracking all consumer goods and services
Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy)
Inflation measure excluding volatile food and energy prices
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
Fed's preferred inflation measure tracking consumer spending
Core PCE (Excluding Food & Energy)
Fed's primary inflation target, excluding volatile components
Producer Price Index (All Commodities)
Wholesale inflation measuring price changes at the producer level
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
Market expectations for average inflation over the next 5 years
Consumer Price Index for Energy
Energy component of CPI tracking gas, electricity, and fuel costs
How to interpret inflation and price signals
Inflation drives the Fed’s reaction function, real returns, and valuation multiples. Use this section to translate each indicator’s percentile into a practical macro and market read.
General overview: what inflation is telling you
Inflation is not one number. This dashboard separates headline vs core (food/energy stripped out), consumer vs producer price pressure, and expectations that influence long rates.
For markets, the common chain is: inflation → Fed policy → rates/discount rates → valuations. When core measures remain sticky, financial conditions can stay tight even if headline cools.
Percentiles help you answer “how unusual is this?” A high percentile for inflation often implies more restrictive policy risk; a low percentile often implies easing flexibility—always confirm using the Money & Markets dashboard.
Detailed breakdown: each indicator and how to use it
Use the cards below to separate persistent inflation (core services/wages) from noisy components (energy/food), and to watch pipeline pressure via PPI and expectations.
Inflation stack: the mental model
Policy risk ↑ when Core inflation is sticky AND expectations rise
Headline inflation can fall quickly when energy drops. Core measures move slower and often matter more for policy. Expectations help explain long-rate behavior and mortgage sensitivity.
Core
Persistence signal
PPI
Pipeline pressure
Breakevens
Expectations channel
Tip: pair this page with Labor & Employment for wage pressure context.
CPI (All Items)
Broad consumer inflation (headline)
- Use it for: the public-facing inflation narrative and immediate market reactions.
- Trap: headline CPI can swing with energy/food—confirm with core CPI/PCE before inferring policy shifts.
- Investor read: persistent high CPI tends to pressure duration assets via higher yields and tighter policy.
Core CPI
CPI excluding food and energy (persistence gauge)
- Why it matters: strips out the noisiest components to better reflect trend inflation.
- Watch for: re-acceleration after a cooling trend (often triggers hawkish repricing).
- Cross-check: wages and job tightness on Labor & Employment.
PCE Price Index
Broad inflation using consumption weights
- Why it’s important: PCE weights adjust with consumer substitution and can differ from CPI dynamics.
- Investor read: cooling PCE supports bond rallies if expectations also fall.
- Trap: don’t overreact to one release—trend and revisions matter.
Core PCE
The Fed’s preferred inflation target (core)
- Use it for: policy baseline—sticky core PCE often keeps rates “higher for longer.”
- Watch for: broad-based deceleration across months, not just a single print.
- Market link: falling core PCE typically supports easing expectations in Money & Markets.
PPI
Producer prices (pipeline / margin pressure)
- Leading-ish signal: producer costs can show up in consumer prices with a lag.
- Margin read: if PPI runs hotter than consumer inflation, companies may face margin squeeze.
- Trap: PPI can be volatile—use trend and breadth across categories.
5Y Inflation Expectations
Market/consumer inflation expectations proxy
- Why it matters: expectations can become self-reinforcing via wages and pricing decisions.
- Rates link: rising expectations can keep long yields elevated even as growth slows.
- Confirm with: breakevens on Housing and yield moves on Money & Markets.
Energy CPI
Energy-driven headline swings
- Use it for: short-term headline surprises and consumer sentiment impact.
- Trap: energy shocks can fade—core measures tell you if inflation is truly embedded.
- Market impact: energy disinflation can improve headline quickly while core stays sticky.
Playbook: put it together
A practical way to combine signals
- Disinflation (risk-on tailwind): headline and core falling + expectations easing + yields trending down.
- Sticky inflation (policy risk): headline down but core flat/up + expectations firm + long rates not falling.
- Pipeline squeeze: PPI hot while CPI/PCE cools → margin risk, watch earnings revisions.
- Re-acceleration: core measures turn up after cooling → hawkish repricing risk in rates.
FAQ
Common investor questions when reading inflation dashboards.
Why does core inflation matter more than headline? ▼
Core measures strip out the most volatile categories (food/energy), making them better gauges of persistent inflation. Persistent core inflation is more likely to influence Fed policy and long-term rates.
Which inflation measure does the Fed focus on most? ▼
The Fed often emphasizes Core PCE because it better reflects consumer substitution and has broader coverage than CPI. Markets still react strongly to CPI, but policy discussions often reference PCE.
What’s the value of tracking PPI? ▼
PPI can signal pipeline cost pressure and potential margin compression. If producers face rising costs and can’t pass them through, profits may come under pressure even before consumer inflation moves.
How do inflation expectations affect markets? ▼
Rising expectations can keep long-term yields elevated and increase the odds of restrictive policy. Falling expectations often support bonds and can relieve valuation pressure on stocks.
Can inflation fall without a recession? ▼
Yes—disinflation can happen via easing supply constraints, lower energy prices, or cooling demand without a deep downturn. However, sticky core inflation often requires a sustained easing in labor and demand conditions.
How should I use percentiles on this page? ▼
Percentiles tell you how unusual today’s readings are versus ~20 years of history. Use them to identify regimes (very high inflation vs unusually low), then confirm using rates, policy, and labor context.
Important considerations
A few common mistakes that can lead to bad macro reads.
- Headline vs core: energy/food can dominate headlines—policy is usually more sensitive to core persistence.
- Base effects: year-over-year rates can move mechanically—confirm with shorter-run momentum and trend.
- Policy is conditional: inflation matters through the lens of growth and jobs—cross-check Growth and Labor dashboards.
- One release is noisy: focus on multi-month direction and breadth across indicators.
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