Labor & Employment Dashboard
Track Key Labor Market Indicators from FRED
Monitor the health of the US labor market with data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). This dashboard tracks six critical employment indicators: Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls, Labor Force Participation Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Job Openings (JOLTS), and Initial Jobless Claims. Each indicator is graded and analyzed against 20 years of historical data to provide context on current labor market conditions. Use this dashboard to understand employment trends, assess wage pressures, and make informed investment decisions.
Open Source & Transparent
All data is open source and verifiable on GitHub. We believe in transparency and welcome contributions to improve our tools.
Key Labor Indicators
Historical Trends
Unemployment Rate
Percentage of labor force that is unemployed
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Total number of paid employees in the US economy
Labor Force Participation Rate
Percentage of working-age population in the labor force
Average Hourly Earnings (Total Private)
Average hourly pay for private sector workers
Job Openings (JOLTS)
Total number of job openings in the economy
Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly count of new unemployment insurance applications
How to read labor market signals
Jobs and wages sit at the center of growth, inflation, and Fed policy. This section helps you translate each labor indicator into a cycle read and an investor-relevant signal.
General overview: the labor market in one framework
Labor tends to be late-cycle: it usually looks strongest right before it weakens. That makes trend changes more important than absolute levels.
This dashboard combines labor slack (unemployment), hiring momentum (payrolls/openings), labor supply (participation), wage pressure (AHE), and layoff stress (claims).
For macro confirmation, cross-check Growth & Output for demand momentum and Inflation & Prices for wage-to-inflation feedback.
Detailed breakdown: each indicator and how to use it
Use the six cards to separate “tight but cooling” from “breaking.” Confirmation across claims, openings, and payroll momentum is key.
Cycle rule of thumb
Labor rolls over when layoffs rise AND hiring demand falls
Unemployment often rises after openings and claims deteriorate. Watch for a shift in the direction of claims and openings as early warnings.
Claims
Most timely
Openings
Hiring appetite
Payrolls
Momentum confirmation
Unemployment Rate
Labor slack (lagging but headline)
- Use it for: broad cycle confirmation, not early turning points.
- Watch for: a sustained uptrend—even from low levels—often signals weakening demand.
- Trap: participation changes can move unemployment without true hiring strength.
Nonfarm Payrolls
Job growth momentum
- Why it matters: payroll momentum is a key driver of spending and earnings resilience.
- Warning: a downshift over multiple reports is more important than one miss.
- Cross-check: confirm with GDP/production in Growth & Output.
Labor Force Participation
Labor supply / hidden slack
- Interpretation: rising participation increases supply and can ease wage pressure.
- Trap: falling participation can make unemployment look better than fundamentals.
- Investor read: stronger participation can support non-inflationary growth.
Average Hourly Earnings
Wage pressure (inflation input)
- Why it matters: sustained wage growth can keep core inflation sticky.
- Cross-check: if wages stay firm while inflation cools, real incomes improve (spending support).
- Policy link: wage strength can keep rates elevated even as growth cools.
Job Openings (JOLTS)
Hiring demand (leading-ish)
- Use it for: early read on hiring appetite before layoffs show up.
- Warning: falling openings can precede payroll weakness.
- Trap: openings can be noisy—look for persistence and alignment with claims.
Initial Jobless Claims
Layoff pressure (most timely)
- Why it matters: claims can turn quickly and often lead deterioration in other labor metrics.
- Watch for: a rising trend or sharp spike—trend beats the weekly noise.
- Cycle read: rising claims + falling openings is a strong “labor is rolling over” signal.
Playbook: combine signals
Cleaner regime reads from confirmation
- Soft landing setup: openings cool, wages cool, claims stable, unemployment flat → disinflation without collapse.
- Recession risk: claims rising + openings falling + payroll momentum down → unemployment typically follows.
- Overheating: low unemployment + firm wage pressure + high openings → inflation risk, hawkish policy odds.
- Inflection watch: the first sustained move up in claims matters more than the absolute level.
FAQ
Quick answers for interpreting jobs and wage signals.
Which labor indicator is the most “leading”? ▼
Initial jobless claims and job openings often move before unemployment. Unemployment is widely followed but tends to confirm later.
Why can unemployment stay low even as the economy slows? ▼
Hiring and firing are sticky. Firms may slow hiring first (openings fall), then reduce hours, and only later move to layoffs. That lag can keep unemployment low until the slowdown becomes more obvious.
How should I interpret wage growth? ▼
Wage growth is both a demand support (income) and a potential inflation driver (cost). Strong wages with cooling inflation improves real incomes; strong wages with sticky inflation raises policy risk.
What’s the role of participation? ▼
Participation captures labor supply. Rising participation can reduce wage pressure and support non-inflationary growth; falling participation can make unemployment look better than it really is.
How do I use this dashboard with the Fed in mind? ▼
The Fed cares about employment and inflation. Tight labor with rising wages can keep policy restrictive. Weakening labor (claims rising, payrolls slowing) increases the odds of easing, especially if inflation also cools.
Why do percentiles matter here? ▼
Percentiles show how unusual current labor conditions are versus ~20 years of history. They help you spot “extreme tightness” or “unusual weakness,” but trend direction still matters most.
Important considerations
Don’t let these common pitfalls distort your labor read.
- Labor is lagging: the labor market often looks best right before it worsens—watch trend changes and leading indicators.
- Participation matters: unemployment can improve if people leave the labor force, even without strong job creation.
- Wages link to inflation: wage acceleration can keep core inflation sticky even if headline inflation cools.
- Weekly noise: claims are volatile—use moving averages/trends to avoid whipsaws.
Related Economy Tools
Cross-check jobs data with policy, inflation, and output trends.