Money & Markets Dashboard
Track Monetary Policy & Market Indicators from FRED
Monitor Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and money market conditions with data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). This dashboard tracks seven critical monetary indicators: Federal Funds Rate, 10-Year Treasury Yield, 2-Year Treasury Yield, Yield Spread (10Y-2Y), M2 Money Stock, Consumer Credit, and the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index. Each indicator is graded and analyzed against 20 years of historical data to provide context on current monetary conditions and policy stance. Use this dashboard to understand Fed policy, anticipate rate changes, and make informed investment decisions.
Open Source & Transparent
All data is open source and verifiable on GitHub. We believe in transparency and welcome contributions to improve our tools.
Key Money & Market Indicators
Historical Trends
Federal Funds Effective Rate
Target interest rate set by the Federal Reserve
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
Yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds
2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
Yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds
10-Year - 2-Year Treasury Spread
Difference between 10Y and 2Y Treasury yields (recession indicator)
M2 Money Stock
Broad measure of money supply including cash, deposits, and savings
Total Consumer Credit Outstanding
Total outstanding consumer credit including auto loans and credit cards
Trade Weighted US Dollar Index
Broad measure of US dollar strength against major currencies
How to read money, rates, and market regime signals
Rates and liquidity are the core transmission mechanism for policy into markets. Use this section to interpret the curve, Fed stance, credit growth, and dollar strength as one coherent regime read.
General overview: what this dashboard is measuring
This page is about the price of money (rates), the shape of expectations (the yield curve), liquidity (M2), and global conditions (the dollar).
Markets care less about the level of rates than about direction and surprise. A fast repricing in the 2Y/10Y can move equities and credit quickly via discount rates and financing conditions.
Use percentiles to identify extremes (very tight vs unusually loose). Then confirm with Inflation & Prices and Growth & Output to anchor the “why.”
Detailed breakdown: each datapoint and how to use it
These indicators are most useful together: the Fed sets the short end, the market prices the path, and the curve shows whether policy is restrictive or easing expectations are building.
Curve logic (the key mental model)
10Y–2Y < 0 often signals restrictive policy + future easing expectations
An inverted curve typically implies short rates are high today relative to expected future short rates. It’s a classic late-cycle signal, but timing can vary widely—use confirmation from labor and growth.
Fed
Controls short end
Curve
Cycle signal
Dollar
Global tightening proxy
Federal Funds Rate
Policy stance (short-rate anchor)
- Use it for: direct view of Fed restrictiveness or accommodation.
- Market impact: hikes raise discount rates and financing costs; cuts often follow weakening growth/labor.
- Trap: the first cut can be bullish for duration but may coincide with recession risk.
2‑Year Treasury Yield
Near-term policy expectations
- Why it matters: the 2Y is a clean “what does the market think the Fed will do?” gauge.
- Signal: 2Y falling while Fed funds is flat often implies cuts are getting priced in.
- Trap: risk-off flows can move yields even without a policy shift—confirm with growth/labor.
10‑Year Treasury Yield
Long-run growth/inflation + term premium
- Use it for: valuation pressure and long-duration sensitivity (tech, housing, long bonds).
- Watch for: rapid spikes (multiple standard deviations) that tighten conditions quickly.
- Cross-check: inflation expectations and core inflation persistence on Inflation page.
Yield Spread (10Y–2Y)
Cycle signal (inversion risk)
- Interpretation: inversion historically aligns with restrictive conditions and later recession risk.
- Nuance: timing can be long—use labor claims/openings for confirmation.
- Market read: un-inversion can coincide with easing expectations or growth fears.
M2 Money Stock
Liquidity / money supply trend
- Why it matters: liquidity conditions influence asset prices and inflation over time.
- Signal: accelerating M2 growth is often a tailwind for risk assets; contraction is tightening.
- Trap: money supply needs velocity/demand to translate to inflation—confirm with CPI/PCE.
Consumer Credit
Borrowing appetite / credit conditions
- Use it for: reading whether households are expanding leverage to fund spending.
- Warning: fast credit growth late-cycle can signal strain if savings fall and delinquencies rise.
- Cross-check: Consumer & Credit for the demand side and savings context.
Trade‑Weighted Dollar Index
Global financial conditions proxy
- Why it matters: a strong dollar tightens global conditions and pressures commodities and EM assets.
- Inflation link: a stronger dollar can lower import inflation, aiding disinflation.
- Signal: sharp dollar spikes often align with risk-off stress.
Playbook: regime reads
Combine signals for cleaner decisions
- Tightening: Fed funds up, 2Y/10Y up, curve flattening/inverting, dollar firm → risk assets pressured.
- Easing expectations: 2Y falling, curve steepening from inversion, inflation cooling → duration tailwind, risk-on possible.
- Stagflation risk: long yields up with sticky core inflation → valuation pressure and policy uncertainty.
- Stress: dollar spike + curve inversion + weakening labor → raise recession probability.
FAQ
Common questions about interpreting money and market indicators.
Why do markets care so much about the 2‑year yield? ▼
The 2‑year yield is tightly linked to expectations for near-term Fed policy. When it moves quickly, it often signals repricing of hikes/cuts, which impacts equities and credit via discount rates.
What does an inverted yield curve actually mean? ▼
It means short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, often implying policy is restrictive today and that the market expects lower future short rates. Historically it aligns with late-cycle conditions and elevated recession risk.
Is a rate cut always bullish? ▼
Not always. Cuts can be bullish for bonds and rate-sensitive assets, but the first cut may coincide with weakening growth or rising recession risk. Use labor and growth confirmation.
How should I use M2 money supply? ▼
As a regime indicator for liquidity. Sustained acceleration can be a tailwind for risk assets; sustained contraction can be tightening. Confirm with inflation and credit conditions.
Why does the dollar matter on a “money markets” page? ▼
The dollar reflects global capital flows and relative policy tightness. A strong dollar can tighten global conditions, pressure commodities/EM, and help lower import inflation.
How do percentiles help here? ▼
They show how extreme current conditions are versus ~20 years of history. Extremes can signal regime shifts (very tight vs unusually loose), but trend direction still matters most.
Important considerations
Avoid these common misreads when interpreting rates and liquidity.
- Direction matters: fast changes in yields often matter more than levels for near-term risk assets.
- Curve timing varies: inversion is a warning, not a stopwatch—confirm with labor and growth.
- Rates reflect multiple forces: yields move on inflation, growth, risk sentiment, and term premium.
- Liquidity is not instant: money supply changes can influence markets with lags.
Related Economy Tools
Pair policy and rates with growth, inflation, and jobs signals.