S&P 500 little changed 0.01% — Market Pulse · Jun 25, 2026

June 25 was another split session. The Russell 2000 rose 0.71% to 3007.86 and the Dow added 0.14% to 51920.62, while the S&P 500 edged down 0.01% to 7357.49 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.46% to 25358.6.

Key Takeaways

• S&P 500 closed little changed 0.01% at 7,357.49.
• Market breadth finished with 305 advancers, 197 decliners, and a 1.548 advance/decline ratio.
• Industrials led sectors at +2.17%, while Consumer Discretionary lagged at -1.49%.
• VIX ended at 18.89 in the latest five-session lookback.
• SPY’s first resistance is 738.55 and first support is 729.48.

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Market Breadth: Small caps lead while tech stays under pressure

Metric	Jun 18	Jun 22	Jun 23	Jun 24	Jun 25
Advance/Decline Ratio	1.114	1.150	1.326	1.803	1.548
Advances	264	268	285	321	305
Declines	237	233	215	178	197
Advancing Volume	58.1%	49.2%	44.8%	43.7%	50.5%
Stocks Near 52-Week Highs	5	24	20	19	32
Stocks Near 52-Week Lows	12	17	9	4	14
% Above 20-Day MA	51.0%	52.0%	54.5%	60.0%	61.0%
% Above 50-Day MA	56.2%	55.6%	60.1%	63.9%	63.6%
% Above 200-Day MA	61.0%	60.4%	61.7%	63.6%	62.4%

Breadth stayed constructive even with the mixed tape. Advancers beat decliners 305 to 197, for an advance-decline ratio of 1.548. Stocks near 52-week highs totaled 32 versus 14 near lows, and about 60% of stocks were above their 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. That said, advancing volume was only about half of volume at 50.25%, which points to participation that was positive, but not especially forceful.

Explore the full dashboard: Market breadth.

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Market Performance: Major Indexes

Index	Close	Change	% Change
S&P 500	7,357.49	-0.73	-0.01%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	51,920.62	71.72	+0.14%
Nasdaq Composite	25,358.60	-118.04	-0.46%
Russell 2000	3,007.86	21.23	+0.71%

Five-session context:

Index	Jun 18	Jun 22	Jun 23	Jun 24	Jun 25
S&P 500	+1.08%	-0.37%	-1.44%	-0.10%	-0.01%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	+0.14%	+0.29%	-0.09%	+0.35%	+0.14%
Nasdaq Composite	+1.91%	-1.32%	-2.21%	-0.43%	-0.46%
Russell 2000	+2.12%	+0.83%	-0.96%	+0.37%	+0.71%

The leadership split was clear. Small caps led, with the Russell 2000 up 0.71%, and the Dow stayed positive. Tech-heavy indexes lagged again, with the Nasdaq now down in each of the last four sessions shown in the five-session lookback, falling from 26517.93 on June 18 to 25358.6 on June 25. Over that same stretch, the Dow was steadier, rising from 51564.7 to 51920.62.

Explore the full dashboard: Market snapshot.

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Sector View: Leaders and Laggards

• Leaders: Industrials (XLI +2.17%), Health Care (XLV +1.49%), Materials (XLB +1.33%), Energy (XLE +0.97%), Technology (XLK +0.83%)
• Laggards: Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.49%), Communication Services (XLC -0.90%), Consumer Staples (XLP -0.59%), Financials (XLF -0.50%), Real Estate (XLRE +0.18%)

Sector moves also pointed to rotation away from some consumer and communication names and toward more cyclical or defensive areas. Industrials led at 184.12, up 2.17%, followed by Health Care, up 1.49%, and Materials, up 1.33%. Consumer Discretionary was the weakest group, falling 1.49% to 113.35, while Communication Services lost 0.9% to 105.58 and Financials slipped 0.5% to 53.45.

Explore the full dashboard: Sector performance.

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Volatility: VIX and ETF Implied Volatility

Metric	Jun 18	Jun 22	Jun 23	Jun 24	Jun 25
VIX Level	16.40	17.28	19.49	18.63	18.89

• SPY IV: 16.16% (Normal)
• QQQ IV: 28.78% (Elevated)
• IWM IV: 22.54% (Normal)
• DIA IV: 15.08% (Normal)

Volatility stayed elevated relative to last week, but it was not surging. The VIX closed at 18.89, up from 18.63 on June 24 and above 16.4 on June 18. In options, SPY implied volatility was 16.16%, IWM was 22.54%, and DIA was 15.08%, all labeled Normal. QQQ stood out at 28.78%, labeled Elevated, which fits the continued pressure in the Nasdaq.

Explore the full dashboard: Volatility.

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Headlines Moving Markets

Macro releases offered a mixed but active backdrop. The BEA said real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The same agency reported May personal income rose $181.6 billion, or 0.7%, while personal consumption expenditures increased $156.1 billion, also 0.7%. The Federal Reserve’s annual bank stress test said large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and continue to lend.

• Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026
• GDP, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 1st Quarter 2026
• Federal Reserve Board’s annual bank stress test confirms that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and able to continue to lend to households and businesses
• U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position, 1st Quarter 2026 and Annual Update
• Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with employee of Bank of Eufaula and S N B Bancshares, Inc.
• Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement action with Jiko Group, Inc.
• Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
• Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting
• Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 28-29, 2026
• Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026
• Personal Income and Outlays, January 2026
• Personal Income and Outlays, December 2025

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Technical Snapshot (SPY)

Level	Jun 18	Jun 22	Jun 23	Jun 24	Jun 25
20-day SMA	744.87	745.24	745.41	744.91	744.15
50-day SMA	726.33	727.78	729.10	730.22	731.21
200-day SMA	683.87	684.44	684.98	685.44	685.91

Near-term pivot structure, based on 2026-06-24:

• Resistance: 738.55 (R1), then 743.77 (R2)
• Pivot: 734.70
• Support: 729.48 (S1), then 725.63 (S2)

SPY technical levels remain useful for framing near-term risk. The pivot was 734.7, with resistance at 738.55 and 743.77, and support at 729.48 and 725.63. Trend markers show a short-term test still in progress: the SPY 20-day SMA was 744.15 on June 25, above the 50-day SMA at 731.21 and well above the 200-day SMA at 685.91. That leaves price caught between a rising intermediate trend and a softer short-term trend.

Explore the full dashboard: Support & Resistance levels.

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What to Watch Next

• Whether the Nasdaq can stabilize after sliding from 26517.93 on June 18 to 25358.6 on June 25.
• Breadth quality, especially if advancing volume can build beyond roughly 50% after a 305 to 197 advancer lead.
• SPY around the 734.7 pivot, then 738.55 above and 729.48 below.
• QQQ implied volatility at 28.78% versus SPY at 16.16%.
• Follow-through in small caps after the Russell 2000 closed at 3007.86, above 2986.63 a day earlier.
• Industrial and health care leadership versus weakness in consumer discretionary and communication services.

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Bottom Line

The session showed decent underlying participation and clear small-cap strength, but tech weakness has not been resolved. With the VIX at 18.89 and QQQ implied volatility still elevated, the market looks more rotational than fully risk-on.

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Market Pulse provides daily analysis of S&P 500 market breadth, sector rotation, and volatility signals to help investors understand what’s happening beneath the surface. Data sourced from our real-time market breadth collectors. For personalized planning, explore our retirement calculators, investment tools, and FIRE planning resources.

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