Market Pulse: Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Yesterday the year-end rally had a clear signature: broad participation and low volatility. Tuesday kept the volatility part intact, but participation cooled materially.

Advancers trailed decliners 214 to 287 (a 0.75 A/D ratio) with advancing volume at 47.3%. Meanwhile the VIX closed at 14.00, and large-cap indexes still finished green.

---

Market Breadth: The Tape Narrowed

Metric	Today (Dec 23)	Monday (Dec 22)
Advance/Decline Ratio	0.75	3.49
Advances	214	391
Declines	287	112
Advancing Volume	47.3%	72.6%
Stocks Near 52-Week Highs	39	54
Stocks Near 52-Week Lows	9	6

What the Numbers Say

This was essentially the opposite of Monday’s “breadth did the work” session. The market still pushed higher, but the internal scoreboard suggests more selective buying rather than broad-based risk appetite.

A couple of reads keep the pullback in participation from looking alarming:

• 59.3% of stocks above their 20-day moving average
• 60.1% above their 50-day
• 60.9% above their 200-day

That’s a market that’s still trending up, but with less day-to-day thrust.

Explore the full dashboard: Market breadth.

---

Market Performance: Large Caps Up, Small Caps Lagged

Index	Close	Change	% Change
S&P 500	6,909.79	+31.30	+0.46%
Dow Jones	48,442.41	+79.73	+0.16%
Nasdaq	23,561.84	+133.01	+0.57%
Russell 2000	2,541.12	-17.66	-0.69%

The key contrast today was index strength vs breadth softness. That combo often shows up when a few bigger groups (or mega-caps) are doing the lifting while the average stock chops.

Explore the full dashboard: Market snapshot.

---

Sector View: Energy and Communication Services Led

Sector leadership tilted toward a familiar “big index influence” mix:

• Leaders: Energy (XLE +0.66%), Communication Services (XLC +0.63%), Technology (XLK +0.54%), Utilities (XLU +0.35%), Financials (XLF +0.20%)
• Laggards: Consumer Staples (XLP -0.48%), Health Care (XLV -0.20%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.14%)

With small caps down and staples weak, the message is less “risk-on stampede” and more selective positioning.

Explore the full dashboard: Sector performance.

---

Volatility: Still Calm, Index IV Still Cheap

Metric	Today (Dec 23)	Monday (Dec 22)
VIX Level	14.00	14.08

A VIX at 14 keeps the market in “quiet tape” mode. That’s supportive for risk assets, but it also means it’s worth watching for any silent drift higher in hedging demand.

Index ETF implied volatility remains low vs longer-run norms:

• SPY IV: 6.46% (low, about 62% below its historical average)
• QQQ IV: 9.28% (low, about 58% below average)
• IWM IV: 11.62% (low, about 52% below average)
• DIA IV: 8.07% (low, about 50% below average)

Explore the full dashboard: Volatility.

---

Headlines Moving Markets

A few themes from today’s news flow:

• Fed chair candidate Hassett says the U.S. is behind the curve on lowering interest rates (CNBC) — Rate-path commentary stayed in focus even with volatility subdued.
• Gas prices fall to four-year lows as millions embark on holiday road trips (CNBC) — Consumer-related inputs remain a key piece of the inflation narrative.
• U.S. pushes additional tariffs on Chinese chips to June 2027 (CNBC) — Trade policy headlines continue to shape the semi/AI backdrop.
• Gold and silver reach fresh highs for a second day running (CNBC) — Precious metals strength is staying on the radar alongside a calm equity volatility regime.
• Fed approves the application by National Bank Holdings Corporation (Federal Reserve) — Regulatory headlines weren’t the main driver, but they add to the broader financial backdrop.

---

Technical Snapshot (SPY)

SPY remains above key trend markers:

• 20-day SMA: 679.23
• 50-day SMA: 673.82
• 200-day SMA: 619.47

Near-term pivot structure (based on prior session levels):

• Resistance: 685.77 (R1), then 686.83 (R2)
• Pivot: 684.24
• Support: 683.18 (S1), then 681.66 (S2)

In a low-volatility environment, these levels matter most if breadth continues to soften; the “tell” is usually whether dips hold above first support while the VIX stays anchored.

Explore the full dashboard: Support & Resistance levels.

---

What to Watch Tomorrow

A short checklist for Wednesday:

• Breadth stabilization: Does A/D climb back above ~1.0 with advancing volume back over 50%?
• Small-cap confirmation: Can the Russell stop lagging if large caps keep grinding up?
• Rotation: Do leaders stay in XLE/XLC/XLK, or does leadership broaden again?
• Volatility floor: Does VIX stay below 15 as we move through thin holiday-week liquidity?

---

Bottom Line

Tuesday looked constructive on the surface (S&P and Nasdaq higher, VIX still calm), but the internal message was more cautious: participation narrowed and small caps slipped.

In a late-December tape, that can be normal consolidation. The key is whether breadth firms back up while volatility stays pinned; if it doesn’t, the risk becomes a slow grind where indexes hold up but the average stock stops participating.

---

Market Pulse provides daily analysis of S&P 500 market breadth, sector rotation, and volatility signals to help investors understand what’s happening beneath the surface. Data sourced from our real-time market breadth collectors. For personalized planning, explore our retirement calculators, investment tools, and FIRE planning resources.