Market Pulse: Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Markets wrapped up Christmas Eve’s shortened session (early close) with a familiar late-December feel: steady index gains, better breadth, and subdued volatility.

The key shift vs Tuesday: participation re-expanded. Advancers beat decliners 388 to 110 (a 3.53 A/D ratio) with advancing volume at 69.9%, while the VIX closed at 13.47.

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Market Breadth: Participation Re-Expanded

Metric	Today (Dec 24)	Tuesday (Dec 23)
Advance/Decline Ratio	3.53	0.75
Advances	388	214
Declines	110	287
Advancing Volume	69.9%	47.3%
Stocks Near 52-Week Highs	47	39
Stocks Near 52-Week Lows	1	9

What the Numbers Say

Tuesday’s close looked “quietly bullish” on the surface, but the internals were selective. Christmas Eve flipped that script: the average stock participated again, even with holiday-thin liquidity.

Trend context remains constructive:

• 64.3% of stocks above their 20-day moving average (vs 59.3% Tuesday)
• 61.5% above their 50-day (vs 60.1%)
• 61.7% above their 200-day (vs 60.9%)

Explore the full dashboard: Market breadth.

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Market Performance: Green Tape Into the Holiday

Index	Close	Change	% Change
S&P 500	6,932.05	+22.26	+0.32%
Dow Jones	48,731.16	+288.75	+0.60%
Nasdaq	23,613.31	+51.46	+0.22%
Russell 2000	2,548.08	+6.96	+0.27%

Given the early close, the cleanest read is simply that risk stayed bid and leadership didn’t need to be ultra-narrow to keep indexes higher.

Explore the full dashboard: Market snapshot.

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Sector View: Staples and Real Estate Led

Sector leadership was defensive-leaning but broadly positive:

• Leaders: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.79%), Real Estate (XLRE +0.65%), Communication Services (XLC +0.60%), Financials (XLF +0.54%), Health Care (XLV +0.52%)
• Laggard: Energy (XLE -0.29%) was the lone notable red print

In a shortened session, this looks more like positioning and rebalancing than a major rotation signal.

Explore the full dashboard: Sector performance.

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Volatility: Even Calmer

Metric	Today (Dec 24)	Tuesday (Dec 23)
VIX Level	13.47	14.00

The VIX drifting further into the low-teens keeps the tape in “calm grind” mode. The main watch item is whether low volatility persists as participation improves (a supportive combo) or whether breadth fades again.

Index ETF implied volatility remains depressed vs longer-run norms:

• SPY IV: 6.86% (about 60% below its historical average)
• QQQ IV: 9.55% (about 57% below average)
• IWM IV: 11.96% (about 50% below average)
• DIA IV: 7.35% (about 54% below average)

Explore the full dashboard: Volatility.

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Headlines Moving Markets

A few items worth noting into the holiday:

• Real GDP rose at a 4.3% annual rate in Q3 2025 (initial estimate), BEA says (BEA) — The latest GDP snapshot reinforces that the growth backdrop is still the core macro input for rates expectations.
• These 5 infrastructure stocks have more than tripled this year on the AI trade (CNBC) — AI-adjacent leadership broadened beyond the usual mega-cap winners.
• Oil giant BP to sell 65% stake in $10 billion Castrol unit (CNBC) — A reminder that big-cap energy stories can still trade on corporate actions even as crude-linked sector performance lags.
• Fed approves the application by National Bank Holdings Corporation (Federal Reserve) — Regulatory developments weren’t the driver today, but they remain part of the broader financial backdrop.

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Technical Snapshot (SPY)

SPY remains above key trend markers:

• 20-day SMA: 680.29
• 50-day SMA: 674.35
• 200-day SMA: 620.13

Near-term pivot structure (based on prior session levels):

• Resistance: 689.44 (R1), then 690.97 (R2)
• Pivot: 686.66
• Support: 685.13 (S1), then 682.35 (S2)

With volatility compressed, these levels tend to matter most if breadth starts to diverge again (indexes up, internals down).

Explore the full dashboard: Support & Resistance levels.

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What to Watch Next

With Thursday’s holiday market closure, the next check-in is the next full session:

• Breadth follow-through: Can A/D stay above ~1.0 with advancing volume above 50%?
• Rotation clarity: Do leaders stay defensive (XLP/XLRE) or broaden into cyclicals?
• Volatility floor: Does VIX hold below 15 through thin holiday-week liquidity?

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Bottom Line

Christmas Eve’s shortened session still delivered what bulls want to see under the hood: breadth improved sharply and volatility stayed quiet.

The main question into the next session is whether participation stays elevated when liquidity normalizes; if it does, the late-December uptrend looks healthier than Tuesday’s narrow tape suggested.

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Market Pulse provides daily analysis of S&P 500 market breadth, sector rotation, and volatility signals to help investors understand what’s happening beneath the surface. Data sourced from our real-time market breadth collectors. For personalized planning, explore our retirement calculators, investment tools, and FIRE planning resources.