Market Pulse: Friday, December 26, 2025

Friday’s post-holiday session had a familiar year-end feel: quiet volatility, muted index movement, and a market trying to hold its trend without much urgency.

Major indexes finished slightly lower (S&P 500 -0.03%, Nasdaq -0.09%), but internals were marginally positive: 263 advancers vs 229 decliners (a 1.15 A/D ratio) with advancing volume at 51.9%. Volatility stayed anchored with the VIX at 13.60.

---

Market Breadth: Slight Edge, Not a Surge

Metric	Today (Dec 26)	Christmas Eve (Dec 24)
Advance/Decline Ratio	1.15	3.53
Advances	263	388
Declines	229	110
Advancing Volume	51.9%	69.9%
Stocks Near 52-Week Highs	42	47
Stocks Near 52-Week Lows	1	1

What the Numbers Say

The biggest change vs the Christmas Eve early close was participation: the market went from a broad rebound to a more balanced, slightly positive internal read.

Trend context remains constructive:

• 65.07% of stocks above their 20-day moving average (vs 64.3% on Dec 24)
• 61.88% above their 50-day (vs 61.5%)
• 61.68% above their 200-day (vs 61.7%)

This is still a tape that’s trending higher on average, but Friday’s internals look more like consolidation than renewed upside thrust.

Explore the full dashboard: Market breadth.

---

Market Performance: Small Pullback After the Holiday

Index	Close	Change	% Change
S&P 500	6,929.94	-2.11	-0.03%
Dow Jones	48,710.97	-20.19	-0.04%
Nasdaq	23,593.10	-20.21	-0.09%
Russell 2000	2,534.35	-13.74	-0.54%

The Russell’s underperformance stands out most; small caps were the clearest pocket of softness even with breadth slightly positive.

Explore the full dashboard: Market snapshot.

---

Sector View: Materials Led, Discretionary Lagged

Leadership was modest and mixed:

• Leaders: Materials (XLB +0.59%), Real Estate (XLRE +0.20%), Technology (XLK +0.16%), Health Care (XLV +0.16%), Consumer Staples (XLP +0.14%)
• Laggards: Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.44%), Energy (XLE -0.38%), Financials (XLF -0.20%), Industrials (XLI -0.18%), Communication Services (XLC -0.10%)

With leadership narrowly positive and laggards clustered around cyclicals, the market’s message reads as steady but not aggressively risk-on.

Explore the full dashboard: Sector performance.

---

Volatility: Still Pinned In The Low-Teens

Metric	Today (Dec 26)	Christmas Eve (Dec 24)
VIX Level	13.60	13.47

Volatility ticked up slightly from the holiday session, but it stayed firmly in the “calm tape” regime.

A quick 3-session context:

• Dec 23: 14.00
• Dec 24: 13.47
• Dec 26: 13.60

Index ETF implied volatility also remained low:

• SPY IV: 6.96% (Low)
• QQQ IV: 9.58% (Low)
• IWM IV: 11.81% (Low)
• DIA IV: 8.09% (Low)

Explore the full dashboard: Volatility.

---

Headlines Moving Markets

A few headlines that shaped the post-holiday conversation:

• Airlines cancel more than 1,500 flights ahead of winter storm. Here’s what to know (CNBC) — Travel disruption stories can spill into airlines, energy demand expectations, and broader “risk appetite” headlines.
• Oracle shares on pace for worst quarter since 2001 as new CEOs face concerns about AI build-out (CNBC) — AI infrastructure spending expectations remain a key input for mega-cap tech sentiment.
• Nvidia-Groq deal is structured to keep ‘fiction of competition alive,’ analyst says (CNBC) — Big AI deals continue to influence how investors think about platform concentration and competitive dynamics.
• Federal Reserve Board announces approval of the application by National Bank Holdings Corporation (Federal Reserve) — Not a day driver, but bank/regulatory items remain part of the background for financials.

---

Technical Snapshot (SPY)

SPY remains above key trend markers:

• 20-day SMA: 681.15
• 50-day SMA: 674.95
• 200-day SMA: 620.84

Near-term pivot structure (based on the prior session reference levels):

• Resistance: 691.45 (R1), then 692.63 (R2)
• Pivot: 689.64
• Support: 688.46 (S1), then 686.65 (S2)

In a low-volatility environment, these levels tend to matter most if breadth starts diverging again (indexes steady while internals fade).

Explore the full dashboard: Support & Resistance levels.

---

What to Watch Next

A short checklist heading into the next session:

• Breadth follow-through: Can A/D stay above ~1.0 with advancing volume holding over 50%?
• Small-cap confirmation: Does the Russell stop lagging if volatility stays pinned?
• Rotation clarity: Do cyclicals (XLY/XLF/XLI) stabilize, or do defensives keep leading?
• Volatility floor: Does VIX remain below 15 as liquidity normalizes after the holiday?

---

Bottom Line

Friday wasn’t a “risk-on” day, but it wasn’t a breakdown either: indexes slipped modestly, breadth stayed slightly positive, and volatility remained calm.

In late-December, that’s often the signature of a market consolidating near highs. The tell from here is whether participation re-expands on up days, while VIX stays anchored.

---

Market Pulse provides daily analysis of S&P 500 market breadth, sector rotation, and volatility signals to help investors understand what’s happening beneath the surface. Data sourced from our real-time market breadth collectors. For personalized planning, explore our retirement calculators, investment tools, and FIRE planning resources.