Market Pulse: Monday, December 29, 2025

Monday’s session leaned risk-off without turning into a volatility event: major indexes finished lower, participation weakened, and leadership rotated toward more defensive areas.

The S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.50%, and small caps continued to lag (Russell 2000 -0.57%). Internals were the bigger story: 206 advancers vs 288 decliners (a 0.72 A/D ratio) and advancing volume at 38.7%. The VIX rose to 14.20—higher on the day, but still historically calm.

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Market Breadth: Participation Softened

Metric	Today (Dec 29)	Friday (Dec 26)
Advance/Decline Ratio	0.72	1.15
Advances	206	263
Declines	288	229
Advancing Volume	38.7%	51.9%
Stocks Near 52-Week Highs	23	42
Stocks Near 52-Week Lows	2	1
% Above 20-Day MA	66.1%	65.1%
% Above 50-Day MA	63.7%	61.9%
% Above 200-Day MA	61.7%	61.7%

What the Numbers Say

Today’s tape looked like a controlled pullback, but it came with thinner participation than Friday:

• The A/D ratio slipped below 1.0 and advancing volume fell into the high-30s—typically a sign of broader selling pressure even if index moves look modest.
• Trend context still reads constructive: ~66% above the 20-day and ~62% above the 200-day suggests many names remain above key trend lines, even as the day’s breadth weakened.
• Watch whether breadth rebounds quickly; in healthy uptrends, down days are often “contained” (internals stabilize even when indexes slip).

Explore the full dashboard: Market breadth.

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Market Performance: Broadly Lower

Index	Close	Change	% Change
S&P 500	6,905.74	-24.20	-0.35%
Dow Jones	48,461.93	-249.04	-0.51%
Nasdaq	23,474.35	-118.75	-0.50%
Russell 2000	2,519.80	-14.55	-0.57%

With all four benchmarks down, the market’s message was less about a single pocket of weakness and more about a general de-risking session, with small caps still not finding their footing.

Explore the full dashboard: Market snapshot.

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Sector View: Energy Led, Cyclicals Lagged

Leadership was fairly defensive, with the weakest areas clustered around consumer/cyclical exposure:

• Leaders: Energy (XLE +0.95%), Real Estate (XLRE +0.27%), Utilities (XLU +0.19%), Consumer Staples (XLP +0.06%)
• Laggards: Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.98%), Materials (XLB -0.80%), Financials (XLF -0.54%), Technology (XLK -0.45%), Industrials (XLI -0.22%)

When defensives (staples/utilities/real estate) hold up while cyclicals fade, it often signals short-term caution—especially if breadth remains weak.

Explore the full dashboard: Sector performance.

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Volatility: Up on the Day, Still Low Overall

Metric	Today (Dec 29)	Friday (Dec 26)
VIX Level	14.20	13.60

A quick three-session context:

• Dec 24: 13.47
• Dec 26: 13.60
• Dec 29: 14.20

Index ETF implied volatility remained in a low regime:

• SPY IV: 7.62% (Low)
• QQQ IV: 10.88% (Low)
• IWM IV: 12.02% (Low)
• DIA IV: 9.90% (Low)

Explore the full dashboard: Volatility.

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Headlines Moving Markets

A few storylines that stood out in the day’s news flow:

• Silver futures log worst day since 2021, retreating sharply from record (CNBC) — A sharp reversal in a high-momentum commodity can spill into broader “risk appetite” narratives.
• Softbank to buy data center firm DigitalBridge for $4 billion in AI push (CNBC) — AI infrastructure and data-center capex expectations remain a swing factor for tech and semis sentiment.
• GM’s record stock performance beats Tesla, Ford and other automakers in 2025 (CNBC) — Year-end performance narratives can influence sector positioning and leadership perception.
• Trump threatens to ‘knock the hell’ out of Iran if they build weapons (CNBC) — Geopolitical headlines can reprice energy risk premia and weigh on broad risk sentiment.

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Technical Snapshot (SPY)

SPY remains above key trend markers:

• 20-day SMA: 681.78
• 50-day SMA: 675.49
• 200-day SMA: 621.53

Near-term pivot structure (based on the prior session reference levels):

• Resistance: 691.47 (R1), then 692.68 (R2)
• Pivot: 690.41
• Support: 689.20 (S1), then 688.13 (S2)

If the tape is simply consolidating, these levels tend to matter most when breadth diverges (indexes steady while participation slips).

Explore the full dashboard: Support & Resistance levels.

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What to Watch Next

A short checklist for the next session:

• Breadth rebound: Can A/D recover back above 1.0 with advancing volume > 50%?
• Small-cap confirmation: Does the Russell stabilize if volatility stays contained?
• Rotation signal: Do cyclicals (XLY/XLF/XLB) bounce, or do defensives keep leading?
• Volatility follow-through: Does VIX stay in the low-teens, or begin trending higher?

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Bottom Line

Monday looked like a mild de-risking day: all major indexes slipped, breadth weakened, and volatility picked up—but not enough to suggest a true volatility regime change.

The near-term tell is whether participation improves quickly on the next up day. If breadth stays soft while VIX grinds higher, risk appetite can fade even if the index pullback remains orderly.

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Market Pulse provides daily analysis of S&P 500 market breadth, sector rotation, and volatility signals to help investors understand what’s happening beneath the surface. Data sourced from our real-time market breadth collectors. For personalized planning, explore our retirement calculators, investment tools, and FIRE planning resources.